The unexpected rise in yields prompted a fairly dramatic re-pricing of mortgages in November. After falling to an all-time low of 5.19%, the 5-year mortgage rate has leapt 25bps to 5.44% while the 1-year rate increased from 3.20% to 3.35%.
Heightened volatility in bond markets could mean a re-testing of mortgage rates lows, particularly if a deepening Euro-crisis prompts a flight to safety in US and Canadian treasuries.
A more likely outcome is that mortgage rates will stay flat for the next quarter as investors re-evaluate growth and inflation expectations in the context of a QE2 world. Our expectation for 2011 is that rates will begin a slow march upwards, hovering slightly higher than current levels for the first half of 2011. Rates will then be prompted higher by expectations of renewed, but cautious, rate tightening by the Bank of Canada in the second half of next year.
The BCREA forecast for the 1-year mortgage rate to average 3.3% in 4th quarter of 2010 and to reach 4.4% by the end of 2011. The 5-year fixed mortgage rate will average 5.30% for the 4th quarter of 2010 before increasing to 5.90% in 2011.
For the full report, go to: http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/forecasts/MortgageRateForecast.pdf
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